Research guide library
Mechanisms, definitions and decision questions across six research areas.
Building a Macro Transmission Map
Trace an economic disturbance through financing, cash flows, currencies, and valuations without turning conditional mechanisms into forecasts.
Reading Growth and Inflation Together
Separate levels, momentum, surprises, and shock origins when using growth and inflation to organize cross-asset research.
Real Yields, Nominal Yields, and Inflation Compensation
Interpret purchasing-power returns, inflation-linked bond yields, and breakevens without confusing observed spreads with pure expectations.
Duration and the Mechanics of Rate Shocks
Calculate bond-price sensitivity, convexity, and curve exposure while keeping approximations separate from realized returns.
Interpreting Yield-Curve Shapes and Changes
Describe curve levels, slopes, forwards, and term premiums without treating inversion or steepening as a complete economic forecast.
Credit Spreads, Financing Conditions, and Growth
Disentangle default exposure, risk appetite, benchmark rates, and index composition when interpreting credit-market information.
Equity Duration as a Conditional Valuation Sensitivity
Explore how cash-flow timing affects equity discount-rate sensitivity without treating stocks as fixed-cash-flow bonds.
Separating Earnings News from Discount-Rate Changes
Reconcile operating results, cash-flow expectations, valuation multiples, and required returns in equity-market research.
Why Stock-Bond Correlation Changes
Connect return co-movement to shocks, measurement choices, and portfolio arithmetic without assuming a permanent diversification relationship.
Currency Translation and Cross-Border Returns
Calculate base-currency returns with explicit quote direction, cash-flow timing, and distinctions between translation and economic exposure.
Comparing Hedged and Unhedged Returns
Reconcile foreign-asset returns, forward payoffs, hedge notionals, and funding effects under explicit currency conventions.
The Dollar's Trade, Valuation, and Financial Channels
Analyze dollar movements through debt denomination, investor balance sheets, trade, and commodity translation without assuming one universal asset response.
Commodity spot prices and futures are different research objects
Identify physical benchmarks, delivery terms, futures maturities, and cash-flow conventions before comparing commodity price series.
Reading oil supply and demand through a balanced ledger
Reconcile flows and inventories, distinguish product supplied from end-use consumption, and test alternative explanations for petroleum data.
Gold and real yields: test the relationship, not the slogan
Distinguish real-rate measures, choose compatible gold returns, and investigate why an opportunity-cost relationship varies across samples.
Commodity roll yield without the accounting shortcuts
Understand maturity replacement, curve convergence, collateral income, and the difference between a roll spread and realized strategy profit.
Selecting correlation windows for cross-asset research
Choose return frequency, estimation windows, timing alignment, and sensitivity checks without selecting the most persuasive correlation after the fact.
Return definitions that make cross-asset comparisons meaningful
Calculate price, income, currency, real, and futures returns using compatible denominators and compounding conventions.
Missing data and market calendars in cross-asset studies
Handle closures, unavailable releases, stale quotes, and asynchronous observations without manufacturing zero returns or future information.
Revisions and vintages: reconstructing the historical information set
Separate reference periods, release histories, source corrections, and methodological changes when studying macro and cross-asset relationships.
Constructing coherent cross-asset scenarios
Build conditional macro paths, translate shocks into instrument effects, and distinguish valuation losses from funding requirements.
Position size is not the same as factor exposure
Translate holdings and derivative notionals into economically meaningful sensitivities while retaining basis, liquidity, and model limitations.
A reproducible process for cross-asset research
Move from an economic question to a documented dataset, bounded analysis, independent reconstruction, and a carefully limited research conclusion.
Interpreting cross-asset research charts critically
Read definitions, scales, transformations, sample choices, and uncertainty before accepting a chart's implied economic story.
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